{"id":3282,"date":"2020-01-17T11:01:38","date_gmt":"2020-01-17T11:01:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kpmadvisory.com.vn\/?p=3282"},"modified":"2023-08-04T14:39:17","modified_gmt":"2023-08-04T14:39:17","slug":"how-is-the-global-economy-at-risk-of-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kpm-as.com\/vi\/how-is-the-global-economy-at-risk-of-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"How is the global economy at risk of recession?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00f3ng nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 nguy c\u01a1 kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi r\u01a1i v\u00e0o suy tho\u00e1i. Tuy nhi\u00ean, x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c n\u00f3i d\u1ec5 h\u01a1n l\u00e0m.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u1edf h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 GDP s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m trong 2 qu\u00fd li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp. \u1ede M\u1ef9, nhi\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 cho th\u1ea5y d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u t\u1ee5t h\u1eadu. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u00f3 ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 cho r\u1eb1ng t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng suy tho\u00e1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta hay theo d\u00f5i GDP c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 \u0110\u1ee9c v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o suy tho\u00e1i nh\u01b0ng hi\u1ec7n nay, c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i \u0111ang chi\u1ebfm nh\u1eefng t\u1ec9 tr\u1ecdng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n trong GDP to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc, khi th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi tr\u1ea3i qua l\u1ea7n suy tho\u00e1i g\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t, Qu\u1ef9 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u00ea IMF \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n v\u1ec1 suy tho\u00e1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, h\u1ecd \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP d\u01b0\u1edbi 3% \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u cho m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 suy tho\u00e1i.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sau nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u00e1ng 4\/2009, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a IMF \u0111\u00e3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m GDP b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 suy tho\u00e1i. C\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p, th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf tr\u00ean quy m\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u00ednh n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y n\u00f3 c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 ra c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i n\u0103m 1975, 1982, 1991 v\u00e0 2009. Th\u1eadm ch\u00ed, n\u0103m 2001 c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 suy tho\u00e1i.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 g\u00ec?<\/span><\/p>\n

Trong khi IMF tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2019 xu\u1ed1ng 3,2%, m\u1ee9c y\u1ebfu nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2009, c\u01a1 quan n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang trong v\u00f9ng suy tho\u00e1i. B\u00e0 Kristalina Georgieva, t\u00e2n T\u1ed5ng Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a Qu\u1ef9 Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf IMF, d\u00f9ng c\u1ee5m t\u1eeb “s\u1ef1 ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1ed9 h\u00f3a” \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Trong khi \u0111\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng trong n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng nguy c\u01a1 suy tho\u00e1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 30% trong 2 n\u0103m t\u1edbi. M\u1ed9t l\u00fd do l\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta v\u1eabn th\u1ea5y n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 trong vi\u1ec7c k\u00edch th\u00edch n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng. M\u1ed1i nguy l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i, l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 leo thang h\u01a1n n\u1eefa trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 – Trung Qu\u1ed1c”, Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, chuy\u00ean gia v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a Danske Bank A\/S, nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trong di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t, T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 Donald Trump li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o nh\u1eefng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u00edch c\u1ef1c t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ea5p cao gi\u1eefa ph\u00e1i \u0111o\u00e0n M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c. \u00d4ng Trump c\u0169ng cho bi\u1ebft \u00f4ng s\u1ebd g\u1eb7p Ph\u00f3 th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Trung Qu\u1ed1c L\u01b0u H\u1ea1c, tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111o\u00e0n \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn th\u1ee9 2 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 11\/10 theo gi\u1edd Washington.<\/span><\/p>\n

Linh Anh<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Theo Tr\u00ed th\u1ee9c tr\u1ebb\/Bloomberg<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00f3ng nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 nguy c\u01a1 kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi r\u01a1i v\u00e0o suy tho\u00e1i. Tuy nhi\u00ean, x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c n\u00f3i d\u1ec5 h\u01a1n l\u00e0m. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u1edf h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 GDP s\u1ee5t<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2305,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[85],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kpm-as.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3282"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kpm-as.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kpm-as.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kpm-as.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kpm-as.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3282"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kpm-as.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3282\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3283,"href":"https:\/\/kpm-as.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3282\/revisions\/3283"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kpm-as.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2305"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kpm-as.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kpm-as.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kpm-as.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}